Sustainable cocoa isn't all it seems

The movement to certify cocoa has taken two steps forward in recent months. Consider these two stories:

1. Mars, which is the world's largest end-user buyer of cocoa, has promised to certify that all its cocoa will come from sustainable sources by 2020. Unfortunately, this article from the Financial Times does not tell us what a 'sustainable source' is, how it will be certified or why it will take over 10 years to complete the process. However, they do hint at the root of the problems of the cocoa sector: very low yields in West Africa, where two-thirds of the world's cocoa comes from. Mars seems to understand that since there is little primary forest left to cut down in Ghana or Côte d'Ivoire, the only way to increase cocoa production is to apply inputs to existing trees and replant them with higher-yielding varieties.

2. Cadbury, the UK's best-selling chocolate maker, has announced all its Dairy Milk bars will be certified 'Fair Trade' by the middle of 2009. The BBC reports this will mean tripling the volume of Fair Trade cocoa it buys from Ghana, to 15,000 tonnes. The more detailed press release points out that they are no longer relying just on Ghana's well-established 'Kuapa Kokoo' cooperative, but will help set up farmers' groups and cooperatives in other parts of the country.

Both Mars and Cadbury promise that chocolate prices won't rise, while promising higher farmgate prices for the cocoa growers. How can they do this without squeezing their profit margins? I can think of two ways. First, certified cocoa has been expensive in the past because it was a niche product. If certification becomes the standard, the economies of scale may make it cheaper to operate the tracing systems, audits and inspections required for certification. Two, Fair Trade (which Cadbury backs, but Mars doesn't) guarantees a minimum price to farmers, but when cocoa prices are as high as they are now, there is no difference between Fair Trade and the world market price. (There is a small 'bonus' for Fair Trade growers, but it's tiny and usually given to the cooperative for community projects, rather than individual farmers).

Will these schemes help cocoa farmers, then? I'd like to see more details of what Mars is planning, but there are some benefits. If certification works, it will make the supply chain more efficient and thus cut out some of the profits made by middlemen. If Fair Trade works, it will reduce the risk of a sudden crash in cocoa prices leaving farmers worse off. Neither of these schemes will do much to reduce poverty in cocoa-growing communities, however. To increase their income, they will need to raise productivity. Higher productivity will come from growing more and better cocoa on the same land, with higher-yielding trees and more inputs including fertiliser (sorry). You can do this through subsidised credit and government- or private-sector led replanting schemes; certification and higher prices alone will not be enough.

Cocoa prices hit a 'record high' - or do they?

The Financial Times reports a sudden increase in the cocoa price, as bad weather and black pod disease lead to lower-than-expected deliveries to ports in Cote d'Ivoire. Good news for cocoa farmers, if the price spike is passed onto them. My concern is, it won't be - the traders will take a profit and the underlying conditions that led to the price spike will return. In the medium term, prices are likely to fall anyway, as global demand for chocolate (and especially high-quality chocolate, such as that coming from Latin America and Ghana) flattens after years of steady increases. (See this from the same paper).

Viewed over the last 15 years, the current price of £1,820 per tonne certainly looks impressive:

















However, the current price may be less impressive than it looks, for two reasons. First, this chart reveals a similar spike in 2002 (presumably a result of the civil war in Côte d'Ivoire) that was followed by a 50% drop in prices and a 5-year slump. That would now equate to a price of around £900. Second, cocoa futures are priced in pounds, but the biggest cocoa producers and consumers use euros. Since the pound's value has declined from around €1.40 a year ago to €1.10 today, a cocoa price of £1,800 today is equivalent to around £1,400 a year ago - namely €2,000. The effective export price in Côte d'Ivoire, whose currency is tied to the euro, is some 10%-15% lower now than in July, when cocoa prices peaked at £1,700 (then €2,200 or $3,000).

In the meantime, what might be the effect of cocoa prices on the second round of Ghana's presidential elections, scheduled for 28 December? Probably very little, since the Cocobod fixed its annual price in August. But with only a percentage point between the two candidates, small psychological factors could make the difference. To all friends in Ghana and friends of Ghana, I wish you a peaceful Christmas and an even more peaceful election.

Cocoa processing in West Africa: addendum

Thank you to readers for commenting on the question of cocoa processing - I stand corrected! In fact, Côte d'Ivoire isn't just the world's largest cocoa producer, but the third-largest processor (only just behind the Netherlands and the USA). Ghana, though much smaller with less than 100,000 tonnes of capacity right now, is catching up - ADM and Cargill have gleaming new factories under construction.

It seems that tax incentives do the trick, along with the comparatively cheap energy and transport out of the coastal ports - great news for anyone working there. I'd be interested to know what the CID folks make of this. Are the tax incentives a good use of resources? Presumably yes, if two conditions are met: (1) cocoa processing has positive externalities that give it a social benefit over and above the direct jobs/profits and (2) the processing wouldn't have happened without the tax incentives. I can see lots of good spillovers from cocoa processing, so this is probably a good deal for the governments concerned.

Why cocoa-growing countries shouldn't make chocolate

It's an obvious economic development strategy: add value to your natural resources. After all, why should coffee growers only get a few cents when a cup of coffee sells for $3? Why should Liberians export their rubber raw to Ohio when they could earn more by making tyres? And why should Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire send most of their cocoa to Europe for processing? Isn't this just the legacy of colonial exploitation and underdevelopment?

Of course, adding value in the source country doesn't pay for multinationals, otherwise they'd be doing it. Now a team at the Center for International Development at Harvard show that it doesn't pay for the country either.

West African countries have lots of rain, cheap labour and an ideal soil for growing tree crops: in other words, a comparative advantage in growing cocoa. Processing cocoa requires entirely different factors: cheap power, semi-skilled labour, a stable environment for big capital projects and cheap transport links. Making chocolate out of cocoa butter is a different business again, calling for more specialized equipment and skills. There is one company making chocolate in Ghana, but it doesn't sell well even here. In fact it's highly unlikely that any country could have comparative advantage in such completely different activities. We shouldn't expect Ghana to specialize in chocolate any more than we would expect Belgian or Swiss chocolatiers to source their cocoa from European greenhouses.

Hausmann, Klinger and Lawrence conclude their paper as follows: "Policies to promote greater downstream processing as an export promotion policy are misguided. Structural transformation favors sectors with similar technological requirements, factor intensities, and other requisite capabilities, not products connected in production chains." (Policy brief here)

Now if only I could figure out what that actually meant in Ghana . . .

The cocoa story: part 1

I have come to Ghana to work on a project to raise the incomes of cocoa growers - already the motor of the rural economy here and in several neighbouring countries.

Ghana is the world's second-largest cocoa producer and three-quarters of a million farmers make a living from it. Unfortunately, their productivity levels are well below what is possible, even before you think about replacing the trees. Better crop management and judicious use of fertilizer can double yields in one or two years. So why hasn't it happened?

The biggest problem seems to be that most farmers can't get credit. Banks are unwilling to lend to farmers, for good reasons: repayment rates are low and there is little chance of seizing the farms to use as collateral, since most farmers don't have formal title to it. Microcredit isn't much help: the interest rates are too high and loan periods too short for agriculture.

West Africa still dominates the world market for cocoa, but Asian producers are making inroads with newer trees and much higher yields. Could cocoa go the way of coffee and oil palm, in which prices are set by cheap, high-volume production in Vietnam and Indonesia? The solution seems to be, at least in Ghana, in a flight to quality. The best soil and climate conditions, apparently. I predict that in 10 or 20 years, chocolate buyers will pay as much attention to questions of origin as wine and coffee buyers do now.